Bitcoin's recent sell pressure has been a topic of concern, especially with the $4 billion USDT market-cap drop. However, this downturn might be nearing its end, according to CryptoQuant's analysis. The 60-day rolling market-cap contraction of USDT is near $4 billion, which is one of the heaviest drawdowns. This suggests that the worst of the bear-market selling pressure could be over. A comparison to the 2022 bear market highlights an ongoing RSI divergence, which is a classic leading indicator for a market reversal. This divergence between BTCUSD and the relative strength index (RSI) on weekly time frames is a bullish sign, indicating a potential end to the bear market. William Clemente, an independent analyst, echoed this prognosis, describing the Bitcoin network as "fundamentally healthy" and "cheap" with a possible leg lower at some point throughout the year. This analysis adds to the growing evidence that the current bear market is in its final stages, with a new Bitcoin macro bottom forming before the end of 2026. However, it's important to note that the downturn is expected to continue in the short term. The correlation between USDT flows and BTC price doesn't settle causality, as both likely respond to the same risk-off conditions. Nevertheless, periods of sustained USDT expansion have generally coincided with stronger Bitcoin price regimes, while prolonged contractions have accompanied weaker demand, deeper corrections, and deteriorating market conditions. This analysis provides a glimmer of hope for Bitcoin investors, suggesting that the worst of the bear market might be behind us. However, it's crucial to remain cautious and monitor the market's response to these developments.
